Believe It Or Not

Welcome to post draft fantasy baseball.  Above is the first thing that comes to mind when I thought of believe it or not.  In this article I wanted to take a look at if the surprise hot starts are legit, and the opening failures will last.  Remember if you will that Roto Hero is all about OBP instead of AVG.   

Surprise Fast Starts (Believe they are Superheroes?):

Josh Willingham: BELIEVE.  Willingham has been smashing like the Hulk so far.  5 HRs in 50 ABs, it’s not too surprising so I think he will keep it up.  The AVG and OBP are surely to drop, but he’s for real and a was a target of mine in every draft.   He’ll move down from his top 15 value, but should stay a top power choice.

Carlos Beltran: BELIEVE.  Believe it or not, Beltran is number four right now in OBP leagues.  Like Willingham AVG/OBP is high, but as long as he is healthy he’s a great option.

Kyle Lohse: NOT. Lohse currently ranks just behind Halladay for top SP.  While he will be a serviceable option, I think the he will return to Bruce Banner status sooner than later.

Jason Heyward:  BELIEVE.  Although I do not believe he will maintain his current pace, I was predicting a return to form for him.  He recently was moved up in the lineup, and with his talent he should last.

Yoenis Cespedes:  NOT.  I was actually hyping him before the season and the power is legitimate.  My fear is that soon teams are going to learn how to pitch to him and the power he relies on for value will slow down.  I would try and sell high.

Surprise Slow Starts (Are these bad starts Flukes or are they Fails): 

Adam Wainwright:  FLUKE.  I’ll admit it doesn’t look good right now.  He’s coming off Tommy John and is 0-3, but he swears he is fine health wise.  I think he is a good buy low candidate.

Kevin Youkilis:  FLUKE.  Bobby V thinks it’s motivation, well Bobby V is a joke.  The biggest mystery to me is the lack of walks.  They will return and so will his value.

Adam Dunn: FAIL.  Knowing his OBP past, I wanted him.  Didn’t get him everywhere, but I wanted him.  Him going yard early is a good sign, but I’m about ready to give up on him.

Ichiro Suzuki: FAIL.  He will obviously be better than he is now so wait to ship, but SEA lineup is bad no matter how much they tried to pretend.  His role as the lone bright star is dimishing.

Troy Tulowitzki:  FLUKE.  I didn’t believe he was a first rounder, but he’ll be back to a top SS option soon enough.

Jose Valverde:  FLUKE.  So it won’t be another perfect season for saves.  He’s still a top option for a team that is going to win lots of games.

Eric Hosmer:  FAIL.  I told you so sounds so childish, but I have been saying he was overhyped on draft boards all year.  In the future he is going to be a stud, I just don’t think it will happen for 2012 season.  Don’t drop, especially not in keeper, but don’t hold your breath for dominance.